A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
